Why Avatar was predictable.

Let me say this straight of the bat. Avatar was a very good movie to see at the cinemas. That being said I want to go through a few of the reasons why I thought the actual story of the film was predictable. I could easily do the same thing about Why Avatar was awesome.

I saw Avatar about a month ago now and in that time its showed no signs of slowing down at the box office. It has now spent 5 consecutive weeks at the top of the US with similar results mirrored across the markets. Even new debut blockbusters such as Sherlock Holmes and the Book of Eli couldn't topple Avatar of its nice little cash cow. It's the movie that everyone must see, its also one of the hottest topics going around. Critics and moviegoers alike have praised its stunning special effects while criticising its at times cliche characters and predictable storyline. I tend to agree with this.

If you have yet to see it, beyond this point will contain spoilers for the entire movie.

Even before going into see the movie everybody seemed to know at least one or two things about the story of Avatar. Its about blue aliens and its about humans taking down those aliens. It's a story about the everyman hero Jake Sully who via the Avatar program he links with a na'vi-human hybrid and infultrates and befriends a local tribe on the moon of Pandora. The tribe so happens to be sitting on a vast deposit of a rare metal that goes for $20 million a kilo. The na'vi want to keep it, the humans want to have their slice. Cue conflict.


At the very heart of the story is the Hero's Journey. It's used over and over again throughout a great many stories. I think its present in Avatar in one of its most basic forms. Where the inexperienced hero, Jake Sully, is given the opportunity of a lifetime to participate in the Avatar program as his twin brother who had trained for years for the program dies. At the very beginning of the story Jake signs up with no idea what to expect. He is a fish out of water, but we have seen the familiar story so many times before that you just know he is going to end up outshining everyone and becoming the ultimate hero of the day. This trope is particular used often in science ficiton and fantasy. (Frodo, Lord of the Rings. Harry Potter. Spiderman. Neo, The Matrix. Rand Al'Thor, Wheel of Time...)

I love Hero's Journey type stories, its often how they are executed that really matters. Really it can either go two ways, the hero wins or the hero fails. Most of the time especially in blockbuster hollywood movies the hero will win.

Prediction: Jake Sully would save the day.
Result: Jake Sully saves the day.

The question was how at this stage, which can be pieced together quite easily as you keep watching the movie.

In addition to the Hero's Journey we have a David v Goliath situation. Where the big bad guys have all the resources and have overwhelming favourable odds to do away with the little guys (Na'vi). There is an implicit promise within a tale like this that the small guy will be able to through an epic struggle defeat the big guys (Humans). To put it simply that is exactly what happens.

Using this makes the victory all the more satisfying in the end. Whats the fun in seeing the story from the big guys perspective and having the big guys win? Thats why David v Goliath adds to the hero's journey. Seen in Lord of the Rings (Mordor v the rest of Middle Earth/mostly men), Mistborn (Small gang pulls of a heist to topple the long in power Lord Ruler), Gladiator (Maximus defies the Empire), Firefly (Independents v Alliance, Mal's crew v the Alliance)

Prediction: Na'vi beat the Humans.
Result: Na'vi beat the Humans.

The next one is more a case of clearly stated motives that don't change rather than predictability. But it adds to the sense that I can see whats happening. The bad guys are ruthless, they will Stop at nothing to destroy the na'vi if they don't move. We know that the humans want whats under the big tree. There are no real hidden agendas from the bad guys, no suprising tricks. The bad guys want to destroy the na'vi and they would rather use force.

Prediction: Humans unload a can of whoopass on the Na'vi.
Result: Their Home Tree is annihilated. They keep attacking.


Im going to tie a couple of points together on this one. Jake Sully ends up being the Chosen One which is often used with the Hero's Journey. Many times what sets the hero apart and is perceived as possibly a weakness in the beginning is the very strength that's needed to become the Chosen One(Avatar specific jargon is used for the 'Chosen One'). In Jakes case im going to say that it was a simple mind and big heart that got him through in the end. Not all chosen ones have to have this, but there is usually some predetermined set of criteria or trials to complete that will determine the Chosen One. (eg. Neo, King Arthur, Jeffrey Sinclair - Babylon 5, many examples in children's fantasy.)

The first promise that he could be something special to the Na'vi comes with the flowers graviating and sticking to his skin. It is said to be the Eywa's doing. And earlier when one lands on the tip of Neytiri's arrowhead. You know something is going to happen, but questions of whether he is or isnt are always played with.

Prediction: Jake Sully chosen one.
Result: Jake Sully chosen one.

What plays into the Chosen One trope really obviously is the heavy handed foreshadowing. The one major example I have in mind is during the first Leonopteryx sequence. Which is the giant aggressive pterodactyl beast. When Neytiri spells out that only the ____(Chosen One) can tame that beast. (Wink, Wink, BIG HINT.) I wonder if Jake Sully is ever going to tame it? (Yes, yes he does.)

Prediction: Jake Sully tames the Leonopteryx.
Result: Jake Sully tames the Leonopteryx.

From the very start you get the feeling that as long as Jake Sully has one foot in both the Human and Na'vi camps he won't fully belong to either. The question was constantly in the back of my mind when watching it. I believe there was a promise that Jake would ultimately find a way to be a full time Na'vi.

My feelings were confirmed when Grace is on the brink of death and below that funky tree they attempt to fully transfer her mind to the healthy Na'vi body. To me this was writing on the wall in capital letters. JAKE WILL USE THIS.

Prediction: Jake transfers his mind to the Na'vi body permanently.
Result: He does in the final scene.


So that covers the main plot in the movie. The Jake-Neytiri subplot was also very predictable, I didnt get much of a will-they wont-they vibe from the two. In fact the romantic portion of the movie plays out very much like a romcom.



A really big trope I have seen practically word for word previously is the Chief's Daughter. Where Neytiri happens to be the daughter of the pseudo king and queen of the tribe. This trope fits into the broader trope of the poor boy winning the princess. (Aladdin, Titanic)
But if you really are looking for a case of de ja vu, take a gander at the season 1 episode of Farscape Jerimiah Crichton. There is the chiefs daughter (Neytiri/Lishala) who has feelings for the lovable rogue (Jake Sully/John Crichton) but tensions are a brewing when the chiefs daughter is already betrothed to an arrogant warrior who is an already accepted leader with his people. ( Tsu'tey/Rokon). The end result is ultimately different from the episode. In Farscape Crichton continues on his way to other adventures. In Avatar they have chemistry, they love eachother, they will be together despite the boundaries.

Prediction: Jake and Neytiri sittin' in a tree...
Result: k-i-s-s-i-n-g. (for starters)

A favourite of the romcom genre is the Double Double agent. One party originally had motives that the other party finds morally unforgivable. Somewhere along the story the hero will decide that he loves the other, and the original motive is no longer the primary motive but it's love.

The love interest will eventually find out about the secret, the hero may have already had an opportunity to come clean - they wanted to - but missed the opportunity and it then blows up in their face. But after the heat dies down, the hero may reason or the other party may find out from a third party the hero is the real deal. In the end this is just a speed bump in the road to happiness.

This trope works, people like to see it much like the Hero's Journey. So it is used over and over again with Avatar no exception.

Jake gets a chance to learn within the tribe itself. The military leader wants his hands greased with information on the Na'vi. Sully obliges with kudos in the beginning. He then falls in love with Neytiri, his tips become slimmer in content. But he is sadly unable to tell Neytiri the truth before his secret literally blows up in his face with Home Tree's destruction helped along by Sully's intel.

I think I got the amount of doubles right. Poses as Na'vi(double), then Poses as someone who poses as a Na'vi(double double).


A large factor I believe that plays into the predictability of the story has nothing to do with the story itself. It's the giant reported $150 million marketing campaign that seeped Avatar into the minds of the world.

James Camerons ten year return to directing, his pioneering camera technology were present years before its actual release. People were already excited to know more, so they got a hold of every scrap of info they could.

In the months before its release, trailers were released, there were tonnes of newspaper articles. The media coverage was huge compared to other movies, even against such films as New Moon the original story of Avatar has held its own for attention.

All of this means that people were very familiar with the story early on. The trailer eludes heavily to the actual story itself. The trailers of course are to wet your appetite, spoilers or not the producers want bums on seats. And they did.

Maybe I would of been singing a different tune if I had have seen it completely cold. It may not have seemed as predictable, but it wouldn't change the fact some common tropes exist within Avatar.

The marketing campaign could also have been a contributing cause to the presense of a tall poppy syndrome (A poppy gets to tall, people need to cut it down). The movie was massive before it was even release, with that much hype surrounding the movie before it had been proven. People will look for reasons for fault an otherwise brilliant movie. If they are looking for flaws, the audience will be criticing instead of emercing themselves in the movie. Knowing too much before hand and having the hype hinders ones ability for suspension of disbelief in a story. If you don't believe then all there is, is a sequence of storytelling techniques played out on screen.

Avatar was predictable. At the same time it was one of the most original, breathtaking new movies to come along this year. Sometimes to make a successful story a mix of the old and new is needed. The setting was very original, but they told a story that was familiar to the audience already. A groundbreaking unique story may have alienated some of the broad target audience. Instead they told a story that already appeals to everyone. Avatar may not have been as successful without it.